Polymarket is coming back to the US

The world’s biggest prediction market is getting out of its hometown banishment. Polymarket is buying a US-listed derivatives exchange, giving it a legal pathway to return to the US market, Bloomberg reported yesterday.

Cost of (re)entry: Polymarket will pay $112 million to buy QCX, a small exchange that just got approved by US regulators earlier this month, per Bloomberg. And while Polymarket has been barred from supporting US-based bets since 2022 because the crypto-based platform was unregistered, that hasn’t stopped the marketplace from schmoozing Uncle Sam:

• Polymarket spent almost $1 million on Facebook and Instagram ads targeting US users last fall, around the same time it became a global casino for election wagers, Sportico reports.
• This year, Polymarket spent $90,000 to hire its first lobbyist, per OpenSecrets. It engaged David Urban, a former advisor to President Trump, to sell lawmakers on “the value of prediction markets,” a company spokesperson told Politico.

Cleared for landing: Last week, in the latest reversal of Biden-era actions on digital assets, Trump-appointed officials ended two investigations that began in 2024 into whether Polymarket violated its agreement to suspend US-based bets.

Zoom out: Sportsbooks like DraftKings are likely dreading the return of Polymarket because of how much Kalshi, a US-approved prediction market, has already disrupted their business. The gambling industry also fears that Trump’s nominee for the regulatory body overseeing prediction markets—who is a current Kalshi board member—won’t help their cause.