Polymarket scammers might’ve altered Paris temp readings

Some water-cooler conversations about weird weather might be based on lies. Paris police are investigating suspected tampering with meteorological equipment after some recent wins in long-shot Polymarket bets on local weather.

The French national weather service notified the authorities that someone may have messed with a sensor at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle Airport, which the prediction market used to gauge the city’s temperature. Weather enthusiasts speculate that meddlers might’ve used a hairdryer to heat the air around the sensor, Le Monde reported.

Unbelievably warm

Anomalous temperature swings registered by the equipment led to some big payouts:

• A Polymarket account won over $21k wagering $120 that Paris’s temperature wouldn’t peak at 18 degrees Celsius on April 15, an outcome valued at a 0.4% probability. The bet was placed in the afternoon as the air was cooling from 18 degrees, shortly before it surged to 22 degrees Celsius.
• A peculiar evening temperature spike a few days prior made $14k for a different account.

Bettors have tried to influence a prediction market’s source of truth before: Despite betting markets prohibiting market manipulation, an Israeli journalist recently received anonymous threats over his reporting on a missile strike in the country that resulted in Polymarket losses, while a military think-tank employee erroneously altered a Ukraine war map that Polymarket uses to determine outcomes.—SK