How realistic is Trump’s promise to send everyone $5,000?
It’s not the first time he’s made a promise like this.
• less than 3 min read
This week, President Trump promised the GOP midterm convention crowd and every American adult $5,000 if Republicans win control of both the House and Senate in November’s election.
But…lawmakers and economists from both parties quickly jumped in to flag the achievability (dubious), legality (ehhhh), and the potential economic ramifications of these “Trump Dividends”—especially since the US is already juggling $40 trillion in debt. The plan raised worries that sending checks would push up inflation as the Covid stimulus did.
It also got people asking how the US could pay the nearly $1.2 trillion it would cost to send everyone $5,000. Vice President JD Vance said the government would use tariff money to cover it; however:
- Import duties only brought in $300 billion from January 2025 through July 2026.
- And $166 billion of that was earmarked to refund companies after SCOTUS nixed most of Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
So, is this legal? It depends on whom you ask. Critics say it violates federal law’s prohibition on making a payment either to induce voting or to vote for or against specific candidates. Others say it’s a permissible campaign promise.
Looking ahead…for this to happen, Congress would have to approve it, and the bipartisan backlash means it’s not clear that enough lawmakers would support it.—MM
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