Predictions markets are spoiling reality TV

The government wants to know: Is The Traitors really a game? Does The Masked Singer involve luck, skill, or athletic ability? And, most importantly, should you be able to bet on Survivor?

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the independent government agency that regulates prediction markets, announced last week that it was seeking public comment to further define where reality game shows fall under its jurisdiction.

And clarity is needed, because prediction markets have spoiled several high-profile reality show moments in recent months, frustrating producers and fans. Legendary Survivor host Jeff Probst told Variety that Kalshi and Polymarket are “incentivizing people to lie, cheat, and steal.” Insider trading could be to blame:

• Aubry Bracco, who won Survivor 50, had a 61% chance of winning the season before it premiered. By the time the finale aired, $32.7 million had been bet on Bracco, boosting her chances to 97%.
• Kalshi even sent a push notification to users before the finale with the message “Survivor S50 finale TONIGHT. Aubry’s at 97% — is the island already decided?”
• Kalshi said it investigated the bets and found no evidence of insider trading, which is banned on the site.

Other pretaped reality shows, like The Masked Singer and Next Level Chef, had their victors correctly predicted before their finales aired.

It’s like whack-a-mole. Prediction markets are reaching every corner of entertainment: Polymarket partnered with the Golden Globes earlier this year and correctly picked 26 out of the 28 winners.—MM