The market for predictions is massive

Prediction markets, which allow people to wager on the outcome of real-world events, have exploded in popularity in the past couple of years. It turns out, a lot of people were itching to bet on elections, the temperature in Kuala Lumpur, and how often Elon Musk might tweet in one week.

Kalshi controls more than 90% of the US prediction market and has annualized revenue exceeding $1.5 billion. The growth is staggering. According to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from digital assets firm The Block, when you look at Kalshi and the other big dog, Polymarket, their combined global trading volume was:

• $4.5 billion in September 2025.
• $24~ billion in April 2026.

Like the TV at your grandparents’ house, that high level of volume is hard to ignore. Investor interest drove Kalshi’s valuation from $11 billion in December to $22 billion about six months later, per the Wall Street Journal. And Polymarket, reportedly valued at $350 million in 2024, was recently in talks to raise money at a $15 billion valuation, according to The Information.

Do bettors actually make any money?

Kalshi and Polymarket have millions of users, but only a tiny percentage make it big. A Wall Street Journal analysis found that:

• Sixty-seven percent of Polymarket’s profits go to just 0.1% of accounts.
• The average Polymarket user has lost between $1 and $100. The bottom 10% of users are down about $4,000 each.
• For every Kalshi user who makes money, there are 2.9 unprofitable users, the company said.

The wager gap: The average prediction market user skews young, and 71% are men, according to a Morning Consult study. Sports, cryptocurrency, and politics are the hottest topics, per Pew.

The future of predictions: Investment firm Bernstein forecast that prediction market trading volume will hit $1 trillion (yes, with a “t”) per year by 2030.—BC